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Demographic Shifts Over the Next Decade

Posted by Amanda Hicks on Monday, April 9th, 2018 at 1:46pm.

John Burns, writer and CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, recently published a column for ATTOM Data Solutions describing demographic shifts the U.S. will experience over the next ten years. Aging, an increase in immigrants and mass movements are some of the trends Burns and his team of researchers suggest will happen, after 9,000 hours spent studying demography in America. 

In his ATTOM column, Burns highlights findings from his book, "Big Shifts Ahead: Demographic Clarity for Business," and discusses the impact new trends will have on the housing market. Here are the important things to watch over the next decade from Burns:

  1. More people over age 65: Nearly 40% of the population will be over age 65 within the next decade- that's 66 million people in 2025. Burns says this will mean more people searching for high-density, low-maintenance living, or as he calls it, "surban," meaning urban living in suburban areas. He also anticipates baby boomers to help their children with downpayments to keep them close by. 
  2. More affluent immigrants: "Today's immigrant tends to arrive on an airplane from China, Brazil and other countries where the economies have been booming," Burns wrote, "While most expect some slowing in those economies, the pent-up demand to move to the U.S. remains large." He estimates there will be 8 million increasingly wealthy immigrants over the next decade.
  3. More people moving south: 62% of population growth will happen in the south U.S. where 42% of the population currently resides. "Plenty of jobs, affordable housing and warm weather will make Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and surrounding states the growth engine," said Burns.
  4. More people dying, leaving households behind: There will be an estimated 25.8 million newly formed households in the next ten years and more than half will move into a home where someone has passed away or moved into assisted living. "The record number of people passing away has been one big reason that net household formation has been slow," Burns wrote, "Nonetheless, these 25.8 million want to live differently than prior generations, and will fill their homes up with all sorts of technology."

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